Future Challenges
Participants of the Future Scenarios game in Barcelona. Image – Rhys Taylor
I am writing this column from the comfort of an aircraft flying high above the Tasman Sea and it’s an opportunity to reflect on what I have heard at an agricultural roundtable in Canberra. According to Australia’s Minister for Agriculture three mega-issues will dominate their outlook over the next few years: the financial crisis, global food security and climate change.
I think this is also largely true for New Zealand. While the former has grabbed much of the media headlines over recent months, the imperatives to address food security and climate change have not in any way been diminished by the recent financial turmoil. Yes, ensuring liquidity and confidence in financial markets has required immediate attention but a moment’s contemplation will show all three issues need a long-term perspective to be adopted if sustainable and globally robust solutions are to be put in place.
Meeting the world’s demand for food presents an enormous opportunity for a food exporter like New Zealand. A lower exchange rate should add impetus to an export-led recovery and gives rise to the guarded optimism of some that ‘our’ recession may be less severe and shorter than in some other economies.
However, the positive prospects for New Zealand food must be tempered by consideration of the natural resources that enable its production – many are already under considerable duress. We see this regularly – the instability of Manawatu hill country, declining water quality in the Waikato, pressures on water availability in Canterbury, the advance of varroa mite through the South Island and indications of more frequent extreme weather events.
In this regard, the financial crisis provides a timely reminder of the folly of excessive ‘debt’ – today’s primary production activities have already borrowed against future generations. Excessive leverage of nature’s balance sheet and climate change both increase the risk of further irreversible loss of ecosystem function and quality – in the worst instance, even their ‘collapse’. And, as we have witnessed that delay in remedying the financial crisis has added to its cost and impact, so too will delay in addressing environmental pressures such as climate change and biodiversity loss.
Here at Landcare Research we are very conscious of the magnitude of these challenges. We are heartened that more and more of our research is being recognised and appreciated for the vital role it will play in New Zealand’s sustainable future, not least in primary production. The need for much greater research investment was a recurring theme at the Canberra roundtable; it was refreshing to hear this coming from sector leaders and industry organisations! This was not simply about better and more infrastructure – they could see clearly that research-led innovation was pivotal to climbing out of the financial crisis early, achieving essential and sustainable resource-productivity gains for increased food production, and in mitigating as much as possible the effect and cost of greenhouse gas emissions. There is much to do on all three fronts!!
Warren Parker
Chief Executive