Trojan Female Project User Needs Analysis
Summary
Background
This report contributes to The AgriBusiness Groups involvement in the Landcare Research project named The Trojan Female Project. It is in completion of Objective 1.4.3 User Needs Analysis: A User Needs Analysis has been conducted for the six top terrestrial vertebrate and invertebrate pest issues (in terms of economic impact).
The purpose of this piece of work is to carry out the user needs analysis on each of the six species by reference to previous work that has been carried out on each of them in terms of the Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA) of potential control measures. Then three of them will be chosen for ’pathway to application’ construction. Note that although varroa mite was initially identified as one of the six pests to consider, feasibility studies identified it would not be conducive to control by the Trojan Female Technique. It was thus replaced with pest wasps, recently identified as having greater economic impacts to New Zealand than previously realised, for consideration here.
In a CBA there are three possible measures reported. Net Present Value (NPV) is the difference between discounted benefits and discounted costs, Benefit Cost Ratio (BCR) is the ratio of discounted benefits to discounted costs, and Internal Rate of Return (IRR) calculates the discount rate that results in discounted benefits being equal to discounted costs.
In this case it is our opinion that the first two (NPV and BCR) are the two measures which are relevant. The purpose of carrying out CBA is to create measures which projects can be compared between to determine which is the best investment. It is our understanding that this project wished to have these comparative measures to compare the worth of the Trojan Female Project.
Results
The results of the financial analysis carried out on the six specified species are shown in Table 1.
Table 1: Results of Analysis of Six Species
| NPV ($m) | Comments | |
|---|---|---|
| Argentine Stem Weevil | $878 to $2,825 | Costs to the productive sector. No inclusion of the impact of endophyte or parasitic wasp. |
| Clover Root Weevil | $1,092 | Costs to the productive sector. No inclusion of the impact of the parasitic wasp. |
| Wasps | $1,350 | Cost to the productive sector. |
| Possums | $250 | Full CBA factored against the counterfactual. Partial in that it doesn’t include DOC expenditure. |
| Rabbits | $107 | Cost of control to the land based sector only. |
| Pest Birds | $373 | Cost to the Arable sector. |
The things to take from the analysis of the six species are:
- Only one, possums, was a full CBA on control costs.
- The majority of the rest were economic impact statements of the cost to the productive sector.
- Several were relatively early in the incursions of the pests and severely overestimated the impacts of them.
- Many of them were done too early in the life of the pest which meant that they were not able to estimate the impact of control measures, particularly the biocontrol measures.
- Only one of them had a counterfactual which meant that it was impossible to calculate a BCR.
Recommendations for the next stage
It is our recommendation that ‘pathways to application’ be constructed for the control of Argentine Stem Weevils, Clover Root Weevils, and wasps. We also recommend that a full CBA be done on Argentine Stem Weevil in relation to the impact of the parasitic wasp and the use of endophyte, Clover Root Weevil on the impact of the parasitic wasp and Wasps into the potential impact of the range of treatment methods being developed. From these studies we will be able to calculate both NPV and BCR in order for the project to compare the potential value and benefit cost ratio of the Trojan Female Project.