Rod Oram: the most profound shift in thinking
‘The world will no longer be divided by the ideologies of “left” and “right”, but by those who accept ecological limits and those who don’t.’ Wolfgang Sachs, Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy, Germany.
People the world over are beginning to make the most profound shift in thinking in human history. Hopefully soon we will achieve a critical mass of people who realise the health of our natural environment is critical to our survival. A big claim? Well, consider our track record to date. Down through the past few millennia, various local civilisations wiped themselves out by destroying their local environment, as Ronald Wright describes in his brief but deeply insightful book A Short History of Progress.
Yes, science and technology have got better since. But two other factors are working against us. First, the world’s population was 2.4 bn in 1950, is 6.5 bn today and is forecast to be 9.5 bn by 2050. And we’ll all want an abundant and comfortable lifestyle. Second, civilisation is now global so our environment impact is now worldwide. Ecological failure will now be global not local.
Climate change is the issue that’s brought this stark truth home to us. But it is only one manifestation of the way we’re living far beyond the capacity of our planet to provide.
This is not an argument for reducing the population but for changing technology. Take energy. The planet is bombarded daily by more energy than we need. But the likes of solar, tide and wind power are still too meagre to meet our needs from this flow of energy. Instead, we mine the stock of stored sunlight laid down through millions of years in coal, oil and gas deposits. In the process we release more carbon dioxide than the atmosphere can handle.
Likewise in most other ways we use the environment, we exploit stocks rather than use flows. So, for example, we pour artificial fertilisers and water on to land so it yields more in the short term than its natural flow of nutrients will allow it to sustain indefinitely .
And yet we have some of the better technology we need to support a large population well and sustainably. Princeton University, for example, has demonstrated 15 current or near–term clean technologies that can reduce our carbon emissions to sustainable levels.
But adapting rapidly to these technologies and developing the rest we need requires radical changes in the economic system. After all, it is the flow of money that changes the stock of research, technology, assets and businesses.
The shift is well under way thanks to changing behaviour by consumers, investors and companies, although only very slowly so far in New Zealand.