Warren Parker: Land use change
Warren Parker
Land use change in New Zealand has been rapid, and with record prices for dairy and crop commodities as well as the prospect of carbon trading at more than $30 per tonne making reforestation of marginal pastoral land more attractive, this change looks set to continue.
History shows changes in land use have had significant economic and environmental impacts on issues such as biodiversity, greenhouse gas emissions and carbon sequestration, primary production, water yield and quality, weeds and pests, landscape aesthetics and the scope for alternative future use.
Getting the right land use balance to meet immediate pressures such as urban population growth or for the provision of renewable energy, and ensuring the best long–term outcome for New Zealanders, is not easy. That we are continuing to lose land from production areas with A–grade soils is concerning given increasing world food and energy shortages resulting from increased demand from developing economies and supply pressures due to the declining global availability of water and land.
The rapid increases in costs of and application of fertiliser also mean these higher quality soils will take on a greater prominence in New Zealand’s future than perhaps some have considered in the recent past.
We believe there is a better way to inform and direct land use change, although none of us holds a crystal ball! Landcare Research has been a leader in the development and application of scenario planning in New Zealand – we have evaluated both qualitative and quantitative approaches with respect to national, regional and catchment–level planning. This research, even though some is still at an early stage, confirms the value of adopting time frames in excess of 30 years to assess the effects of land policy, technology, population change and other drivers on productivity, environmental performance, landscapes and economic well–being.
We have built links with leading international research groups working in this domain and started to incorporate improved visualisation and other techniques to help stakeholders envision alternative futures. This will help prioritise where the greatest
returns from collecting additional data for planning can be made and to design practical indicators for monitoring the effects of land use change over intergenerational time frames.
Much work remains to be done but the early signs are promising. Furthermore, we are uniquely placed to draw on the huge store of information in the national databases and collections we host, to exploit the high speed KAREN computer network and benefit from the expertise of colleagues in local government, industry and other research providers.